Meta's 60 trillion, my 800M, and why neither number means anything on its own.
I think the end-state is a framework that compares AI spend against the next-best use of both money and time.
Not just: “Did this AI workflow create value?”
But: “Did this create more value than the same dollars and human hours would have created elsewhere?”
In other words:
ROI on AI spend / ROI on alternative spend > 1
+
time saved or output gained / opportunity cost of the time redirected > 1
If both are true, increase spend. If not, it's just performative productivity.
To contradict myself, at least in part: for public companies, there’s likely an additional calculation around perception.
E.g., how being seen as AI-forward affects short-term stock value, access to talent, and ultimately FCF. But that quickly gets far into the weeds.
I think the end-state is a framework that compares AI spend against the next-best use of both money and time.
Not just: “Did this AI workflow create value?”
But: “Did this create more value than the same dollars and human hours would have created elsewhere?”
In other words:
ROI on AI spend / ROI on alternative spend > 1
+
time saved or output gained / opportunity cost of the time redirected > 1
If both are true, increase spend. If not, it's just performative productivity.
To contradict myself, at least in part: for public companies, there’s likely an additional calculation around perception.
E.g., how being seen as AI-forward affects short-term stock value, access to talent, and ultimately FCF. But that quickly gets far into the weeds.